AGDI currently has about 300 publications.
2015 |
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621. | Jellal, Bouzahzah & Simplice Asongu Mohamed A Institutional Governance, Education and Growth 2015. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Education, Growth, Human Capital, Institutions @workingpaper{Jellal2015, title = {Institutional Governance, Education and Growth}, author = {Bouzahzah & Simplice Asongu A Mohamed Jellal}, editor = {African 2015 Governance and Development Institute WP/15/059}, url = {http://www.afridev.org/RePEc/agd/agd-wpaper/Institutional-Governance-Education-and-Growth.pdf}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-12-01}, abstract = {This study articulates the interaction between institutional governance, education and economic growth. Given the current pursuit of education policy reforms and knowledge economy around the world, it is of policy relevance to theoretically analyze the main mechanisms by which the macroeconomic impact of education on growth (and economic development) occurs. Our theoretical model demonstrates how incentives offered by the government affect human capital accumulation which ultimately engenders positive economic development externalities. We articulate two main channels through which education affects economic growth. The first channel highlights direct positive effect of educational quality on the incentive to accumulate human capital by individuals, which makes them more productive. The second channel appears in the explicit function of the economic growth rate. As a policy implication, we have shown that the growth rate depends on the rate of return on human capital or that this rate of return itself depends on the quality of governance, which further increases growth. As a result, institutional quality has a double dividend, which suggests considerable benefits to educational reforms.}, keywords = {Education, Growth, Human Capital, Institutions}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {workingpaper} } This study articulates the interaction between institutional governance, education and economic growth. Given the current pursuit of education policy reforms and knowledge economy around the world, it is of policy relevance to theoretically analyze the main mechanisms by which the macroeconomic impact of education on growth (and economic development) occurs. Our theoretical model demonstrates how incentives offered by the government affect human capital accumulation which ultimately engenders positive economic development externalities. We articulate two main channels through which education affects economic growth. The first channel highlights direct positive effect of educational quality on the incentive to accumulate human capital by individuals, which makes them more productive. The second channel appears in the explicit function of the economic growth rate. As a policy implication, we have shown that the growth rate depends on the rate of return on human capital or that this rate of return itself depends on the quality of governance, which further increases growth. As a result, institutional quality has a double dividend, which suggests considerable benefits to educational reforms. |
622. | Asongu, Antonio Andrés Simplice R A Trajectories in Knowledge Economy: Empirics from SSA and MENA countries 2015. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Knowledge economy; Principal Component Analysis; Panel data; Convergence @workingpaper{Asongu2015bf, title = {Trajectories in Knowledge Economy: Empirics from SSA and MENA countries}, author = {Antonio Andrés R Simplice A. Asongu}, editor = {African 2015 Governance and Development Institute WP/15/060}, url = {http://www.afridev.org/RePEc/agd/agd-wpaper/Trajectories-of-KE-in-SSA-and-MENA-Countries.pdf}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-12-01}, abstract = {In the first critical assessment of knowledge economy dynamic paths in Africa and the Middle East, but for a few exceptions, we find overwhelming support for diminishing crosscountry disparities in knowledge-base-economy dimensions. The paper employs all the four components of the World Bank’s Knowledge Economy Index (KEI): economic incentives, innovation, education, and information infrastructure. The main finding suggests that subSaharan African (SSA) and the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries with low levels in KE dynamics and catching-up their counterparts of higher KE levels. We provide the speeds of integration and time necessary to achieve full (100%) integration. Policy implications are discussed.}, keywords = {Knowledge economy; Principal Component Analysis; Panel data; Convergence}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {workingpaper} } In the first critical assessment of knowledge economy dynamic paths in Africa and the Middle East, but for a few exceptions, we find overwhelming support for diminishing crosscountry disparities in knowledge-base-economy dimensions. The paper employs all the four components of the World Bank’s Knowledge Economy Index (KEI): economic incentives, innovation, education, and information infrastructure. The main finding suggests that subSaharan African (SSA) and the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries with low levels in KE dynamics and catching-up their counterparts of higher KE levels. We provide the speeds of integration and time necessary to achieve full (100%) integration. Policy implications are discussed. |
623. | Asongu, Jacinta Nwachukwu Simplice C A Finance and Inclusive Human Development: Evidence from Africa 2015. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Banking; human development; Africa @workingpaper{Nwachukwu2015b, title = {Finance and Inclusive Human Development: Evidence from Africa}, author = {Jacinta Nwachukwu C Simplice A. Asongu}, editor = {African 2015 Governance and Development Institute WP/15/061}, url = {http://www.afridev.org/RePEc/agd/agd-wpaper/Finance-and-Inclusive-Human-Development.pdf}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-12-01}, abstract = {This study investigates direct and indirect linkages between financial development and inclusive human development in data panels for African countries using a battery of estimation techniques, notably: Two-Stage Least Squares, Fixed Effects, Generalized Method of Moments and Tobit regressions. The dependent variable is the inequality adjusted human development index. All dimensions of the Financial Development and Structure Database (FDSD) of the World Bank are considered. The main finding is that financial dynamics of depth, activity and size improve inclusive human development, whereas the inability of banks to transform mobilized deposits into credit for financial access negatively affects inclusive human development. Policy implications are discussed in the light of fighting surplus liquidity and providing information sharing offices (like public credit registries and private credit bureaus) that would reduce information asymmetry between lenders and borrowers.}, keywords = {Banking; human development; Africa}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {workingpaper} } This study investigates direct and indirect linkages between financial development and inclusive human development in data panels for African countries using a battery of estimation techniques, notably: Two-Stage Least Squares, Fixed Effects, Generalized Method of Moments and Tobit regressions. The dependent variable is the inequality adjusted human development index. All dimensions of the Financial Development and Structure Database (FDSD) of the World Bank are considered. The main finding is that financial dynamics of depth, activity and size improve inclusive human development, whereas the inability of banks to transform mobilized deposits into credit for financial access negatively affects inclusive human development. Policy implications are discussed in the light of fighting surplus liquidity and providing information sharing offices (like public credit registries and private credit bureaus) that would reduce information asymmetry between lenders and borrowers. |
624. | Asongu, Jacinta Nwachukwu Simplice C A Foreign Aid and Inclusive Development: Updated Evidence from Africa, 2005-2012 2015. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Foreign Aid; Political Economy; Development; Africa @workingpaper{Asongu2015bg, title = {Foreign Aid and Inclusive Development: Updated Evidence from Africa, 2005-2012}, author = {Jacinta Nwachukwu C Simplice A. Asongu}, editor = {African 2015 Governance and Development Institute WP/15/062}, url = {http://www.afridev.org/RePEc/agd/agd-wpaper/Foreign-Aid-and-Inclusive-Development.pdf}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-12-01}, abstract = {Motivated by the April 2015 World Bank Publication on MDGs which reveals that poverty has been declining in all regions of the world with the exception of African countries, this study investigates the effects of a plethora of foreign aid dynamics on inequality adjusted human development. Contemporary and non-contemporary OLS, Fixed-effects and a system GMM technique with forward orthogonal deviations are employed. The empirical evidence is based on an updated sample of 53 African countries for the period 2005-2012.The following findings are established. First, the impacts of aid dynamics with high degrees of substitution are positive. These include aid for: social infrastructure, economic infrastructure, the productive sector and multi-sectors. Second, the effect of humanitarian assistance is consistently negative across specifications and models. Third, the effects of programme assistance and action on debt are ambiguous because they become positive with the GMM technique. Justifications for these changes and clarifications with respect to existing literature are provided. Policy implications are discussed in the light of the post-2015 development agenda. We also provide some recommendations for a rethinking of theories and models on which development assistance is based.}, keywords = {Foreign Aid; Political Economy; Development; Africa}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {workingpaper} } Motivated by the April 2015 World Bank Publication on MDGs which reveals that poverty has been declining in all regions of the world with the exception of African countries, this study investigates the effects of a plethora of foreign aid dynamics on inequality adjusted human development. Contemporary and non-contemporary OLS, Fixed-effects and a system GMM technique with forward orthogonal deviations are employed. The empirical evidence is based on an updated sample of 53 African countries for the period 2005-2012.The following findings are established. First, the impacts of aid dynamics with high degrees of substitution are positive. These include aid for: social infrastructure, economic infrastructure, the productive sector and multi-sectors. Second, the effect of humanitarian assistance is consistently negative across specifications and models. Third, the effects of programme assistance and action on debt are ambiguous because they become positive with the GMM technique. Justifications for these changes and clarifications with respect to existing literature are provided. Policy implications are discussed in the light of the post-2015 development agenda. We also provide some recommendations for a rethinking of theories and models on which development assistance is based. |
625. | Asongu, Mohamed Jellal Simplice A Foreign Aid Fiscal Policy: Theory and Evidence 2015. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Foreign Aid; Political Economy; Development; Africa @workingpaper{Asongu2015bh, title = {Foreign Aid Fiscal Policy: Theory and Evidence}, author = {Mohamed Jellal Simplice A. Asongu}, editor = {African 2015 Governance and Development Institute WP/15/063}, url = {http://www.afridev.org/RePEc/agd/agd-wpaper/Foreign-Aid-Fiscal-Policy-Theory-and-Evidence.pdf}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-12-01}, abstract = {The paper provides theoretical and empirical justifications for the instrumentality of foreign aid in stimulating private investment and fixed capital formation through fiscal policy mechanisms. We propose an endogenous growth theory based on an extension of Barro (1990) by postulating that the positive effect of aid mitigates the burden of the taxation system on the private sector of recipient countries. The empirical validity is based on data from 53 African countries for the period 1996-2010. While the findings on the tax effort channel are overwhelmingly consistent with theory across specifications and fundamental characteristics, those of the ‘government expenditure’ channel are a little heterogeneous but broadly in line with the theoretical postulations. Justification for the slight heterogeneity and policy implications are discussed.}, keywords = {Foreign Aid; Political Economy; Development; Africa}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {workingpaper} } The paper provides theoretical and empirical justifications for the instrumentality of foreign aid in stimulating private investment and fixed capital formation through fiscal policy mechanisms. We propose an endogenous growth theory based on an extension of Barro (1990) by postulating that the positive effect of aid mitigates the burden of the taxation system on the private sector of recipient countries. The empirical validity is based on data from 53 African countries for the period 1996-2010. While the findings on the tax effort channel are overwhelmingly consistent with theory across specifications and fundamental characteristics, those of the ‘government expenditure’ channel are a little heterogeneous but broadly in line with the theoretical postulations. Justification for the slight heterogeneity and policy implications are discussed. |
626. | Asongu, Jacinta Nwachukwu Simplice C A Economics Bulletin, 35 (4), pp. 2288-2308, 2015. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Lifelong learning; Corruption; Development; Africa @article{Asongu_610, author = {Jacinta Nwachukwu C Simplice A. Asongu}, url = {http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2015/Volume35/EB-15-V35-I4-P231.pdf}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-11-20}, journal = {Economics Bulletin}, volume = {35}, number = {4}, pages = {2288-2308}, abstract = {Education as a tool in the fight against corruption has been subject to much debate in academic and policy making circles. This note extends what we know on this nexus in a threefold manner: namely, in terms of: incremental, lifelong learning and synergy effects. Four main findings are established. First, education is a powerful tool in the fight against corruption. Second, there is evidence of an incremental effect in the transition from secondary to tertiary education. Third, lifelong learning defined as knowledge acquired during primary, secondary and tertiary education negatively affects corruption. Fourth, there is evidence of a ‘synergy effect’ because the impact of lifelong learning is higher than the combined effects of various educational levels. The empirical evidence is based on 53 African countries for the period 1996-2010. Two main policy implications are derived. First, encouraging education through the tertiary level enhances the fight against corruption. Second, the drive towards a knowledge economy by means of lifelong learning has ‘corruption mitigating’ benefits.}, keywords = {Lifelong learning; Corruption; Development; Africa}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Education as a tool in the fight against corruption has been subject to much debate in academic and policy making circles. This note extends what we know on this nexus in a threefold manner: namely, in terms of: incremental, lifelong learning and synergy effects. Four main findings are established. First, education is a powerful tool in the fight against corruption. Second, there is evidence of an incremental effect in the transition from secondary to tertiary education. Third, lifelong learning defined as knowledge acquired during primary, secondary and tertiary education negatively affects corruption. Fourth, there is evidence of a ‘synergy effect’ because the impact of lifelong learning is higher than the combined effects of various educational levels. The empirical evidence is based on 53 African countries for the period 1996-2010. Two main policy implications are derived. First, encouraging education through the tertiary level enhances the fight against corruption. Second, the drive towards a knowledge economy by means of lifelong learning has ‘corruption mitigating’ benefits. |
627. | Kodila-Tedika, Simplice Asongu Oasis A Intelligence, 53 (November–December), pp. 154–159, 2015. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Health; Human capital; Intelligence @article{Asongu_611, author = {Simplice Asongu A Oasis Kodila-Tedika}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289615001348}, doi = {10.1016/j.intell.2015.10.005}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-11-19}, journal = {Intelligence}, volume = {53}, number = {November–December}, pages = {154–159}, abstract = {This study complements existing literature on the relationship between HIV/AIDS and human capital by introducing previously unexplored indicators and more robust empirical strategies. The overarching purpose is to assess whether previous findings on the relationship withstand empirical scrutiny when alternative indicators and methodologies are employed. Four main HIV/AIDS measurements are regressed on intelligence for a maximum of 195 cross-sectional averages over the past decade. The empirical evidence is based on OLS, IWLS and 2SLS. The following findings are established. First, human capital decreases HIV prevalence, with a higher magnitude on ‘Women's share of population aged 15 and above living with HIV’. This implies improving average human capital levels across communities may be more beneficial to girls above the age of 15 living with HIV. The relatively similar negative magnitudes across other dependent variables implies that increasing human capital decreases deaths from HIV/AIDS by almost the same rate at which it reduces infections to the disease. Moreover, the HIV infection rate in children between the ages of 0 and 14 does not significantly change with improvements in human capital. More policy implications are discussed.}, keywords = {Health; Human capital; Intelligence}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } This study complements existing literature on the relationship between HIV/AIDS and human capital by introducing previously unexplored indicators and more robust empirical strategies. The overarching purpose is to assess whether previous findings on the relationship withstand empirical scrutiny when alternative indicators and methodologies are employed. Four main HIV/AIDS measurements are regressed on intelligence for a maximum of 195 cross-sectional averages over the past decade. The empirical evidence is based on OLS, IWLS and 2SLS. The following findings are established. First, human capital decreases HIV prevalence, with a higher magnitude on ‘Women's share of population aged 15 and above living with HIV’. This implies improving average human capital levels across communities may be more beneficial to girls above the age of 15 living with HIV. The relatively similar negative magnitudes across other dependent variables implies that increasing human capital decreases deaths from HIV/AIDS by almost the same rate at which it reduces infections to the disease. Moreover, the HIV infection rate in children between the ages of 0 and 14 does not significantly change with improvements in human capital. More policy implications are discussed. |
628. | Asongu, Lieven De Moor & Vanessa Tchamyou Simplice S A Pre- and post-crisis dynamics of financial globalisation for financial development in Africa 2015. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Banking; Financial crisis; Financial development @workingpaper{Asongu2015bi, title = {Pre- and post-crisis dynamics of financial globalisation for financial development in Africa}, author = {Lieven De Moor & Vanessa Tchamyou S Simplice A. Asongu}, editor = {African 2015 Governance and Development Institute WP/15/045}, url = {http://www.afridev.org/RePEc/agd/agd-wpaper/Pre-and-post-crisis-dynamics-of-financial-globalisation-for-financial-development.pdf}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-11-01}, abstract = {This study unites two streams of research by simultaneously focusing on the impact of financial globalisation on financial development and pre- and post-crisis dynamics of the investigated relationship. The empirical evidence is based on 53 African countries for the period 2004-2011 and Generalised Method of Moments. The following findings are established. First, whereas marginal effects from financial globalisation are positive on financial dynamics of activity and size, corresponding net effects (positive thresholds) are negative (within range). Second, while decreasing financial globalisation returns are apparent to financial dynamics of depth and efficiency, corresponding net effects (negative thresholds) are positive (not within range). Third, financial development dynamics are more weakly stationary and strongly convergent in the precrisis period. Fourth, the net effect from the: pre-crisis period is lower on money supply and banking system efficiency; post-crisis period is positive on financial system efficiency and precrisis period is positive on financial size. Policy implications are discussed.}, keywords = {Banking; Financial crisis; Financial development}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {workingpaper} } This study unites two streams of research by simultaneously focusing on the impact of financial globalisation on financial development and pre- and post-crisis dynamics of the investigated relationship. The empirical evidence is based on 53 African countries for the period 2004-2011 and Generalised Method of Moments. The following findings are established. First, whereas marginal effects from financial globalisation are positive on financial dynamics of activity and size, corresponding net effects (positive thresholds) are negative (within range). Second, while decreasing financial globalisation returns are apparent to financial dynamics of depth and efficiency, corresponding net effects (negative thresholds) are positive (not within range). Third, financial development dynamics are more weakly stationary and strongly convergent in the precrisis period. Fourth, the net effect from the: pre-crisis period is lower on money supply and banking system efficiency; post-crisis period is positive on financial system efficiency and precrisis period is positive on financial size. Policy implications are discussed. |
629. | Asongu, Isaac Koomson & Vanessa Tchamyou Simplice S A Financial globalisation uncertainty/instability is good for financial development 2015. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Banking; Financial integration; Development @workingpaper{Asongu2015bj, title = {Financial globalisation uncertainty/instability is good for financial development}, author = {Isaac Koomson & Vanessa Tchamyou S Simplice A. Asongu}, editor = {African 2015 Governance and Development Institute WP/15/046}, url = {http://www.afridev.org/RePEc/agd/agd-wpaper/Financial-globalisation-uncertainty-is-good-for-financial-development.pdf}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-11-01}, abstract = {Purpose – This study assesses the effect of time-dynamic financial globalisation uncertainty on financial development in 53 African countries for the period 2000-2011. Design/methodology/approach – Financial globalisation uncertainty is estimated as timedynamic to capture business cycle disturbances while all dimensions identified by the Financial Development and Structure Database of the World Bank are employed, namely: financial depth (money supply and liquid liabilities), financial system efficiency (at banking and financial system levels), financial system activity (from banking system and financial system perspectives) and financial size. The empirical evidence is based on the Generalised Method of Moments with forward orthogonal deviations. Findings- The following findings are established. First, financial globalisation uncertainty does not significantly affect money supply, financial system deposits and financial size. Second, the uncertainty increases banking system efficiency, banking system activity and financial system activity. Moreover, the positive effects are consistently driven by above-median uncertainty levels. Practical implications- It follows that uncertainty in foreign capital flows may be a disguised advantage for domestic financial development, especially in dealing with the substantially documented issue of surplus liquidity in African financial institutions. Moreover, the sceptical view in the financial globalisation literature that ‘allocation efficiency’ is only plausible in the absence of uncertainty/instability is not substantiated by the findings. Justifications for the nexuses and other policy implications are discussed. Originality/value- To the best of our knowledge this is the first study to assess the effects of financial globalisation uncertainty on financial development in Africa using time-dynamic measurements of financial globalisation uncertainty and all dimensions identified by the Financial Development and Structure Database of the World Bank.}, keywords = {Banking; Financial integration; Development}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {workingpaper} } Purpose – This study assesses the effect of time-dynamic financial globalisation uncertainty on financial development in 53 African countries for the period 2000-2011. Design/methodology/approach – Financial globalisation uncertainty is estimated as timedynamic to capture business cycle disturbances while all dimensions identified by the Financial Development and Structure Database of the World Bank are employed, namely: financial depth (money supply and liquid liabilities), financial system efficiency (at banking and financial system levels), financial system activity (from banking system and financial system perspectives) and financial size. The empirical evidence is based on the Generalised Method of Moments with forward orthogonal deviations. Findings- The following findings are established. First, financial globalisation uncertainty does not significantly affect money supply, financial system deposits and financial size. Second, the uncertainty increases banking system efficiency, banking system activity and financial system activity. Moreover, the positive effects are consistently driven by above-median uncertainty levels. Practical implications- It follows that uncertainty in foreign capital flows may be a disguised advantage for domestic financial development, especially in dealing with the substantially documented issue of surplus liquidity in African financial institutions. Moreover, the sceptical view in the financial globalisation literature that ‘allocation efficiency’ is only plausible in the absence of uncertainty/instability is not substantiated by the findings. Justifications for the nexuses and other policy implications are discussed. Originality/value- To the best of our knowledge this is the first study to assess the effects of financial globalisation uncertainty on financial development in Africa using time-dynamic measurements of financial globalisation uncertainty and all dimensions identified by the Financial Development and Structure Database of the World Bank. |
630. | Asongu, Simplice A 2015. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Econometric modeling; Capital flight; Poverty; Africa @workingpaper{Asongu2015bk, title = {Addressing a Root Cause of Sub Saharan Africa’s Poverty Tragedy: Horizons for post-2015 Common Capital Flight Policies}, author = {Simplice A Asongu}, editor = {African 2015 Governance and Development Institute WP/15/048}, url = {http://www.afridev.org/RePEc/agd/agd-wpaper/Addressing-a-Root-Cause-of-Sub-Saharan-Africa-s-Poverty-Tragedy.pdf}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-11-01}, abstract = {An April 2015 World Bank report on attainment of the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) extreme poverty target has revealed that extreme poverty has been decreasing in all regions of the world with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), in spite of the sub-region enjoying more than two decades of growth resurgence. This study builds on a critic of Piketty’s ‘capital in the 21st century’ and recent methodological innovations on reverse Solow-Swan to review empirics on the adoption of common policy initiatives against a cause of extreme poverty in SSA: capital flight. The richness of the dataset enables the derivation of 14 fundamental characteristics of African capital flight based on income-levels, legal origins, natural resources, political stability, regional proximity and religious domination. The main finding reveals that regardless of fundamental characteristic, from a projection date of 2010, a genuine timeframe for harmonizing policies is between 2016 and 2023. In other words, the beginning of the psot-2015 agenda on sustainable development goals coincides with the timeframe for common capital flight policies.}, keywords = {Econometric modeling; Capital flight; Poverty; Africa}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {workingpaper} } An April 2015 World Bank report on attainment of the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) extreme poverty target has revealed that extreme poverty has been decreasing in all regions of the world with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), in spite of the sub-region enjoying more than two decades of growth resurgence. This study builds on a critic of Piketty’s ‘capital in the 21st century’ and recent methodological innovations on reverse Solow-Swan to review empirics on the adoption of common policy initiatives against a cause of extreme poverty in SSA: capital flight. The richness of the dataset enables the derivation of 14 fundamental characteristics of African capital flight based on income-levels, legal origins, natural resources, political stability, regional proximity and religious domination. The main finding reveals that regardless of fundamental characteristic, from a projection date of 2010, a genuine timeframe for harmonizing policies is between 2016 and 2023. In other words, the beginning of the psot-2015 agenda on sustainable development goals coincides with the timeframe for common capital flight policies. |