AGDI currently has about 300 publications.
2016 |
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| 1. | Asongu, Simplice African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, 7 (2), pp. 164 -204, 2016. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Africa, Banking, inflation, Monetary policy, Output effects @article{Asongu_566, author = {Simplice Asongu}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/AJEMS-11-2012-0079}, doi = {10.1108/AJEMS-11-2012-0079}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-05-14}, journal = {African Journal of Economic and Management Studies}, volume = {7}, number = {2}, pages = {164 -204}, abstract = {Purpose – A major lesson of the European Monetary Union crisis is that serious disequilibria in a monetary union result from arrangements not designed to be robust to a variety of shocks. With the specter of this crisis looming substantially and scarring existing monetary zones, the purpose of this paper is to complement existing literature by analyzing the effects of monetary policy on economic activity (output and prices) in the CEMAC and UEMOA CFA franc zones. Design/methodology/approach – VARs within the frameworks of Vector Error-Correction Models and Granger causality models are used to estimate the long- and short-run effects, respectively. Impulse response functions are further used to assess the tendencies of significant Granger causality findings. A battery of robustness checks are also employed to ensure consistency in the specifications and results. Findings –H1. monetary policy variables affect prices in the long-run but not in the short-run in the CFA zones (broadly untrue). This invalidity is more pronounced in CEMAC (relative to all monetary policy variables) than in UEMOA (with regard to financial dynamics of activity and size). H2. monetary policy variables influence output in the short-term but not in the long-run in the CFA zones. First, the absence of cointegration among real output and the monetary policy variables in both zones confirm the neutrality of money in the long term. With the exception of overall money supply, the significant effect of money on output in the short-run is more relevant in the UEMOA zone, than in the CEMAC zone in which only financial system efficiency and financial activity are significant. Practical implications – First, compared to the CEMAC region, the UEMOA zone’s monetary authority has more policy instruments for offsetting output shocks but fewer instruments for the management of short-run inflation. Second, the CEMAC region is more inclined to non-traditional policy regimes while the UEMOA zone dances more to the tune of traditional discretionary monetary policy arrangements. A wide range of policy implications are discussed. Inter alia: implications for the long-run neutrality of money and business cycles; implications for credit expansions and inflationary tendencies; implications of the findings to the ongoing debate; country-specific implications and measures of fighting surplus liquidity. Originality/value – The paper’s originality is reflected by the use of monetary policy variables, notably money supply, bank and financial credits, which have not been previously used, to investigate their impact on the outputs of economic activities, namely, real GDP output and inflation, in developing country monetary unions.}, keywords = {Africa, Banking, inflation, Monetary policy, Output effects}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Purpose – A major lesson of the European Monetary Union crisis is that serious disequilibria in a monetary union result from arrangements not designed to be robust to a variety of shocks. With the specter of this crisis looming substantially and scarring existing monetary zones, the purpose of this paper is to complement existing literature by analyzing the effects of monetary policy on economic activity (output and prices) in the CEMAC and UEMOA CFA franc zones. Design/methodology/approach – VARs within the frameworks of Vector Error-Correction Models and Granger causality models are used to estimate the long- and short-run effects, respectively. Impulse response functions are further used to assess the tendencies of significant Granger causality findings. A battery of robustness checks are also employed to ensure consistency in the specifications and results. Findings –H1. monetary policy variables affect prices in the long-run but not in the short-run in the CFA zones (broadly untrue). This invalidity is more pronounced in CEMAC (relative to all monetary policy variables) than in UEMOA (with regard to financial dynamics of activity and size). H2. monetary policy variables influence output in the short-term but not in the long-run in the CFA zones. First, the absence of cointegration among real output and the monetary policy variables in both zones confirm the neutrality of money in the long term. With the exception of overall money supply, the significant effect of money on output in the short-run is more relevant in the UEMOA zone, than in the CEMAC zone in which only financial system efficiency and financial activity are significant. Practical implications – First, compared to the CEMAC region, the UEMOA zone’s monetary authority has more policy instruments for offsetting output shocks but fewer instruments for the management of short-run inflation. Second, the CEMAC region is more inclined to non-traditional policy regimes while the UEMOA zone dances more to the tune of traditional discretionary monetary policy arrangements. A wide range of policy implications are discussed. Inter alia: implications for the long-run neutrality of money and business cycles; implications for credit expansions and inflationary tendencies; implications of the findings to the ongoing debate; country-specific implications and measures of fighting surplus liquidity. Originality/value – The paper’s originality is reflected by the use of monetary policy variables, notably money supply, bank and financial credits, which have not been previously used, to investigate their impact on the outputs of economic activities, namely, real GDP output and inflation, in developing country monetary unions. |
2014 |
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| 2. | Asongu, Simplice A Indian Growth and Development Review, 7 (2), pp. 142 - 180, 2014. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Africa, Banking, inflation, Monetary policy, Output effects, VECM @article{Asongu_679, author = {Simplice A Asongu}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/IGDR-12-2012-0048}, doi = {10.1108/IGDR-12-2012-0048}, year = {2014}, date = {2014-10-15}, journal = {Indian Growth and Development Review}, volume = {7}, number = {2}, pages = {142 - 180}, abstract = {Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of monetary policy on economic activity using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics in inflation-chaotic African countries for the period of 1987-2010.Although in developed economies, changes in monetary policy affect real economic activity in the short-run, but only prices in the long-run, the question of whether these tendencies apply to developing countries remains open to debate. Design/methodology/approach – Vector autoregresion (VARs) within the frameworks of Vector Error Correction Models and simple Granger causality models are used to estimate the long- and short-run effects, respectively. A battery of robustness checks are also used to ensure consistency in the specifications and results. Findings – The tested hypotheses are valid under monetary policy independence and dependence, except few exceptions. H1: Monetary policy variables affect prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. For the first-half (long-run dimension) of the hypothesis, permanent changes in monetary policy variables (depth, efficiency, activity and size) affect permanent variations in prices in the long-term. But in cases of disequilibriums, only financial dynamic fundamentals of depth and size significantly adjust inflation to the cointegration relations. With respect to the second-half (short-run view) of the hypothesis, monetary policy does not overwhelmingly affect prices in the short-term. Hence, but for a thin exception, H1 is valid. H2: Monetary policy variables influence output in the short-term but not in the long-term. With regard to the short-term dimension of the hypothesis, only financial dynamics of depth and size affect real gross domestic product output in the short-run. As concerns the long-run dimension, the neutrality of monetary policy has been confirmed. Hence, the hypothesis is also broadly valid. Practical implications – A wide range of policy implications are discussed. Inter alia: the long-run neutrality of money and business cycles, credit expansions and inflationary tendencies, inflation targeting and monetary policy independence implications. Country-/regional-specific implications, the manner in which the findings reconcile the ongoing debate, measures for fighting surplus liquidity and caveats and future research directions are also discussed. Originality/value – By using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics (that broadly reflect monetary policy), we provide significant contributions to the empirics of money. The conclusion of the analysis is a valuable contribution to the scholarly and policy debate on how money matters as an instrument of economic activity in developing countries}, keywords = {Africa, Banking, inflation, Monetary policy, Output effects, VECM}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of monetary policy on economic activity using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics in inflation-chaotic African countries for the period of 1987-2010.Although in developed economies, changes in monetary policy affect real economic activity in the short-run, but only prices in the long-run, the question of whether these tendencies apply to developing countries remains open to debate. Design/methodology/approach – Vector autoregresion (VARs) within the frameworks of Vector Error Correction Models and simple Granger causality models are used to estimate the long- and short-run effects, respectively. A battery of robustness checks are also used to ensure consistency in the specifications and results. Findings – The tested hypotheses are valid under monetary policy independence and dependence, except few exceptions. H1: Monetary policy variables affect prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. For the first-half (long-run dimension) of the hypothesis, permanent changes in monetary policy variables (depth, efficiency, activity and size) affect permanent variations in prices in the long-term. But in cases of disequilibriums, only financial dynamic fundamentals of depth and size significantly adjust inflation to the cointegration relations. With respect to the second-half (short-run view) of the hypothesis, monetary policy does not overwhelmingly affect prices in the short-term. Hence, but for a thin exception, H1 is valid. H2: Monetary policy variables influence output in the short-term but not in the long-term. With regard to the short-term dimension of the hypothesis, only financial dynamics of depth and size affect real gross domestic product output in the short-run. As concerns the long-run dimension, the neutrality of monetary policy has been confirmed. Hence, the hypothesis is also broadly valid. Practical implications – A wide range of policy implications are discussed. Inter alia: the long-run neutrality of money and business cycles, credit expansions and inflationary tendencies, inflation targeting and monetary policy independence implications. Country-/regional-specific implications, the manner in which the findings reconcile the ongoing debate, measures for fighting surplus liquidity and caveats and future research directions are also discussed. Originality/value – By using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics (that broadly reflect monetary policy), we provide significant contributions to the empirics of money. The conclusion of the analysis is a valuable contribution to the scholarly and policy debate on how money matters as an instrument of economic activity in developing countries |
