PUBLICATIONS
The AGDI has published substantially in fulfillment of its mission statement of contributing to knowledge towards African development:
IDEAS
http://ideas.repec.org/d/agdiycm.html
ECONSTOR
https://www.econstor.eu/dspace/escollectionhome/10419/123513
Publication List
2014 |
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731. | Asongu, Jacinta Nwachukwu Simplice C A Revolution empirics: predicting the Arab Spring 2014. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Arab Spring; Political Instability; Timing; Economic Growth @workingpaper{Asongu2014bq, title = {Revolution empirics: predicting the Arab Spring}, author = {Jacinta Nwachukwu C Simplice A. Asongu}, editor = {African 2014 Governance and Development Institute WP/32/14}, url = {http://www.afridev.org/RePEc/agd/agd-wpaper/Revolution-empirics-Predicting-the-Arab-Spring.pdf}, year = {2014}, date = {2014-08-01}, abstract = {The paper examines whether the Arab Spring phenomenon was predictable by complete elimination in the dispersion of core demands for better governance, more jobs and stable consumer prices. A methodological innovation of the Generalized Methods of Moments is employed to assess the feasibility and timing of the revolution. The empirical evidence reveals that from a projection date of 2007, the Arab Spring was foreseeable between 2011 and 2012. The paper contributes at the same time to the empirics of predicting revolutions and the scarce literature on modeling the future of socio-economic events. Caveats and cautions are discussed.}, keywords = {Arab Spring; Political Instability; Timing; Economic Growth}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {workingpaper} } The paper examines whether the Arab Spring phenomenon was predictable by complete elimination in the dispersion of core demands for better governance, more jobs and stable consumer prices. A methodological innovation of the Generalized Methods of Moments is employed to assess the feasibility and timing of the revolution. The empirical evidence reveals that from a projection date of 2007, the Arab Spring was foreseeable between 2011 and 2012. The paper contributes at the same time to the empirics of predicting revolutions and the scarce literature on modeling the future of socio-economic events. Caveats and cautions are discussed. |
732. | Asongu, Simplice A Economics Bulletin, 34 (3), pp. 1557-1574, 2014. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Finance; Institutions; Investment; Property Rights; Africa @article{Asongu_696, author = {Simplice A Asongu}, url = {http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2014/Volume34/EB-14-V34-I3-P142.pdf}, year = {2014}, date = {2014-07-17}, journal = {Economics Bulletin}, volume = {34}, number = {3}, pages = {1557-1574}, abstract = {The Ali (2013, EB) findings on the nexuses among institutions, finance and investment could have an important influence on policy and academic debates. This paper relaxes his hypotheses on the conception, definition and measurement of finance and institutions because they are less realistic to developing countries to which the resulting policy implications are destined. We dissect with great acuteness the contextual underpinnings of financial development dynamics and elucidate why the Acemoglu & Johnson (2005) justification provided for the measurement of property rights institutions (PRI) is lacking in substance. Using updated data (1996-2010) from 53 African countries, we provide more robust evidence on the substitution of institutions and finance in investment. Results under many baseline and augmented scenarios are not consistent with the underlying paper. Justifications for the differences in findings are discussed. As a policy implication, the Ali (2013, EB) findings for countries with poor financial systems may not be relevant for Africa.}, keywords = {Finance; Institutions; Investment; Property Rights; Africa}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } The Ali (2013, EB) findings on the nexuses among institutions, finance and investment could have an important influence on policy and academic debates. This paper relaxes his hypotheses on the conception, definition and measurement of finance and institutions because they are less realistic to developing countries to which the resulting policy implications are destined. We dissect with great acuteness the contextual underpinnings of financial development dynamics and elucidate why the Acemoglu & Johnson (2005) justification provided for the measurement of property rights institutions (PRI) is lacking in substance. Using updated data (1996-2010) from 53 African countries, we provide more robust evidence on the substitution of institutions and finance in investment. Results under many baseline and augmented scenarios are not consistent with the underlying paper. Justifications for the differences in findings are discussed. As a policy implication, the Ali (2013, EB) findings for countries with poor financial systems may not be relevant for Africa. |
733. | Asongu, Simplice A International Journal of Economic Behavior, 4 (1), pp. 33-50, 2014. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Financial Development; Shadow Economy; Poverty; Inequality; Africa @article{Asongu_697, author = {Simplice A Asongu}, url = {http://ijeb.faa.ro/en/article/New-Financial-Development-Indicators-With-a-Critical-Contribution-to-Inequality-Empirics~482.html}, year = {2014}, date = {2014-06-24}, journal = {International Journal of Economic Behavior}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {33-50}, abstract = {The employment of financial development indicators without due consideration to country/regional specific financial development realities remains an issue of substantial policy relevance. Financial depth in the perspective of money supply is not equal to liquid liabilities in every development context. This paper introduces complementary indicators to the existing Financial Development and Structure Database (FDSD). Dynamic panel system GMM estimations are applied. Different specifications, non-overlapping intervals and control variables are used to check the consistency of estimated coefficients. Our results suggest that from an absolute standpoint (GDP base measures), all financial sectors are pro-poor. However, three interesting findings are drawn from measures of sector importance. (1) The expansion of the formal financial sector to the detriment of other financial sectors has a disequalizing income effect. (2) Growth of informal and semi-formal financial sectors at the expense of the formal financial sector has an income equalizing effect. (3) The positive income redistributive effect of semi-formal finance in financial sector competition is higher than the corresponding impact of informal finance. It unites two streams of research by contributing at the same time to the macroeconomic literature on measuring financial development and responding to the growing field of economic development by means of informal financial sector promotion and microfinance. The paper suggests a practicable way to disentangle the effects of the various financial sectors on economic development. The equation of financial depth in the perspective of money supply to liquid liabilities has put on the margin the burgeoning informal financial sector in developing countries. The phenomenon of mobile banking is such an example.}, keywords = {Financial Development; Shadow Economy; Poverty; Inequality; Africa}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } The employment of financial development indicators without due consideration to country/regional specific financial development realities remains an issue of substantial policy relevance. Financial depth in the perspective of money supply is not equal to liquid liabilities in every development context. This paper introduces complementary indicators to the existing Financial Development and Structure Database (FDSD). Dynamic panel system GMM estimations are applied. Different specifications, non-overlapping intervals and control variables are used to check the consistency of estimated coefficients. Our results suggest that from an absolute standpoint (GDP base measures), all financial sectors are pro-poor. However, three interesting findings are drawn from measures of sector importance. (1) The expansion of the formal financial sector to the detriment of other financial sectors has a disequalizing income effect. (2) Growth of informal and semi-formal financial sectors at the expense of the formal financial sector has an income equalizing effect. (3) The positive income redistributive effect of semi-formal finance in financial sector competition is higher than the corresponding impact of informal finance. It unites two streams of research by contributing at the same time to the macroeconomic literature on measuring financial development and responding to the growing field of economic development by means of informal financial sector promotion and microfinance. The paper suggests a practicable way to disentangle the effects of the various financial sectors on economic development. The equation of financial depth in the perspective of money supply to liquid liabilities has put on the margin the burgeoning informal financial sector in developing countries. The phenomenon of mobile banking is such an example. |
734. | Asongu, Simplice A South African Journal of Economics, 82 (2), pp. 276–289, 2014. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Exchange rate;macroeconomic impact;proposed WAMU @article{Asongu_698, author = {Simplice A Asongu}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/saje.12039/abstract?userIsAuthenticated=false&deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=}, doi = {10.1111/saje.12039}, year = {2014}, date = {2014-06-04}, journal = {South African Journal of Economics}, volume = {82}, number = {2}, pages = {276–289}, abstract = {With the spectre of the euro crisis hunting embryonic monetary unions, we use a dynamic model of a small open economy to analyse real effective exchange rate (REER) imbalances and examine whether the movements in the aggregate real exchange rates are consistent with the underlying macroeconomic fundamentals in the proposed West African Monetary Union (WAMU). Using both country-oriented and WAMU panel-based specifications, we show that the long-run behaviour of the REERs can be explained by fluctuations in the terms of trade, productivity, investment, debt and openness. While there is still significant evidence of cross-country differences in the relationship between underlying macroeconomic fundamentals and corresponding REERs, the embryonic WAMU has a stable error correction mechanism, with four of the five cointegration relations having signs that are consistent with the predictions from economic theory. Policy implications are discussed, and the conclusions of the analysis are a valuable contribution to the scholarly and policy debate over whether the creation of a sustainable monetary union should precede convergence in macroeconomic fundamentals that determine REER adjustments.}, keywords = {Exchange rate;macroeconomic impact;proposed WAMU}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } With the spectre of the euro crisis hunting embryonic monetary unions, we use a dynamic model of a small open economy to analyse real effective exchange rate (REER) imbalances and examine whether the movements in the aggregate real exchange rates are consistent with the underlying macroeconomic fundamentals in the proposed West African Monetary Union (WAMU). Using both country-oriented and WAMU panel-based specifications, we show that the long-run behaviour of the REERs can be explained by fluctuations in the terms of trade, productivity, investment, debt and openness. While there is still significant evidence of cross-country differences in the relationship between underlying macroeconomic fundamentals and corresponding REERs, the embryonic WAMU has a stable error correction mechanism, with four of the five cointegration relations having signs that are consistent with the predictions from economic theory. Policy implications are discussed, and the conclusions of the analysis are a valuable contribution to the scholarly and policy debate over whether the creation of a sustainable monetary union should precede convergence in macroeconomic fundamentals that determine REER adjustments. |
735. | Asongu, Simplice A African Development Review, 26 (2), pp. 333–346, 2014. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Financial development; Knowledge Economy; Africa @article{Asongu_699, author = {Simplice A Asongu}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-8268.12085/abstract?userIsAuthenticated=false&deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=}, doi = {10.1111/1467-8268.12085}, year = {2014}, date = {2014-06-04}, journal = {African Development Review}, volume = {26}, number = {2}, pages = {333–346}, abstract = {The goal of this paper is to assess how knowledge economy (KE) plays out in financial sector competition. It suggests a practicable way to disentangle the effects of different components of KE on various financial sectors. The variables identified under the World Bank's four knowledge economy index (KEI) are employed. An endogeneity robust panel instrumental variable fixed-effects estimation strategy is employed on data from 53 African countries for the period 1996–2010. The following findings are established. First, education and innovation in terms of scientific and technical publications broadly bear an inverse nexus with financial development. Second, the incidence of information and communication technologies is positive on all financial sectors but increases the non-formal sectors to the detriment of the formal sector. Third, economic incentives have positive implications for all sectors though the formal financial sector benefits most. Fourth, institutional regime is positive (negative) for the semi-formal (informal) financial sector. The findings contribute at the same time to the macroeconomic literature on measuring financial development and respond to the growing fields of informal sector importance, microfinance and mobile banking by means of KE promotion. Policy implications and future research directions are discussed.}, keywords = {Financial development; Knowledge Economy; Africa}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } The goal of this paper is to assess how knowledge economy (KE) plays out in financial sector competition. It suggests a practicable way to disentangle the effects of different components of KE on various financial sectors. The variables identified under the World Bank's four knowledge economy index (KEI) are employed. An endogeneity robust panel instrumental variable fixed-effects estimation strategy is employed on data from 53 African countries for the period 1996–2010. The following findings are established. First, education and innovation in terms of scientific and technical publications broadly bear an inverse nexus with financial development. Second, the incidence of information and communication technologies is positive on all financial sectors but increases the non-formal sectors to the detriment of the formal sector. Third, economic incentives have positive implications for all sectors though the formal financial sector benefits most. Fourth, institutional regime is positive (negative) for the semi-formal (informal) financial sector. The findings contribute at the same time to the macroeconomic literature on measuring financial development and respond to the growing fields of informal sector importance, microfinance and mobile banking by means of KE promotion. Policy implications and future research directions are discussed. |
736. | Asongu, Simplice A International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, 7 (2), pp. 200 - 213, 2014. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Financial Development, Knowledge economy @article{Asongu_700, author = {Simplice A Asongu}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/IMEFM-04-2013-0048}, doi = {10.1108/IMEFM-04-2013-0048}, year = {2014}, date = {2014-06-04}, journal = {International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management}, volume = {7}, number = {2}, pages = {200 - 213}, abstract = {Purpose – This paper aims to assess dynamics of the knowledge economy (KE)–finance nexus using the four variables identified under the World Bank’s (WB’s) Knowledge Economy Index (KEI) and seven financial intermediary dynamics of depth, efficiency, activity and size. Design/methodology/approach – Principal component analysis is used to reduce the dimensions of KE components before dynamic panel generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation techniques are employed to examine the nexus. Findings – Four main findings are established. First, education improves financial depth and financial efficiency but mitigates financial size. Second, apart from a thin exception (trade’s incidence on money supply), economic incentives (credit facilities and trade) are not consistently favorable to financial development. Third, information and communications technology improves only financial size and has a negative effect on other financial dynamics. Finally, proxies for innovation (journals and foreign direct investment [FDI]) have a positive effect on financial activity; journals (FDI) have (has) a negative (positive) effect on liquid liabilities, and journals and FDI both have negative incidences on money supply and banking system efficiency, respectively. Practical implications – As a policy implication, the KE–finance nexus is a complex and multidimensional relationship. Hence, blind and blanket policy formulation to achieve positive linkages may not be successful unless policy-making strategy is contingent on the prevailing “KE-specific component” trends and dynamics of financial development. Policy makers should improve the economic incentive dimension of KE that, overwhelmingly and consistently, deters financial development, owing to surplus liquidity issues. Originality/value – As far as we have reviewed, this is the first paper to examine the KE–finance nexus with the plethora of KE dimensions defined by the WB’s KEI and all the dynamics identified by the Financial Development and Structure Database.}, keywords = {Financial Development, Knowledge economy}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Purpose – This paper aims to assess dynamics of the knowledge economy (KE)–finance nexus using the four variables identified under the World Bank’s (WB’s) Knowledge Economy Index (KEI) and seven financial intermediary dynamics of depth, efficiency, activity and size. Design/methodology/approach – Principal component analysis is used to reduce the dimensions of KE components before dynamic panel generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation techniques are employed to examine the nexus. Findings – Four main findings are established. First, education improves financial depth and financial efficiency but mitigates financial size. Second, apart from a thin exception (trade’s incidence on money supply), economic incentives (credit facilities and trade) are not consistently favorable to financial development. Third, information and communications technology improves only financial size and has a negative effect on other financial dynamics. Finally, proxies for innovation (journals and foreign direct investment [FDI]) have a positive effect on financial activity; journals (FDI) have (has) a negative (positive) effect on liquid liabilities, and journals and FDI both have negative incidences on money supply and banking system efficiency, respectively. Practical implications – As a policy implication, the KE–finance nexus is a complex and multidimensional relationship. Hence, blind and blanket policy formulation to achieve positive linkages may not be successful unless policy-making strategy is contingent on the prevailing “KE-specific component” trends and dynamics of financial development. Policy makers should improve the economic incentive dimension of KE that, overwhelmingly and consistently, deters financial development, owing to surplus liquidity issues. Originality/value – As far as we have reviewed, this is the first paper to examine the KE–finance nexus with the plethora of KE dimensions defined by the WB’s KEI and all the dynamics identified by the Financial Development and Structure Database. |
737. | Asongu, Simplice A Institutions and Economies, 6 (2), pp. 1-26, 2014. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Africa, Intellectual property rights, Panel data, Software piracy @article{Asongu_701, author = {Simplice A Asongu}, url = {http://ijie.um.edu.my/filebank/published_article/6528/IE%201.pdf}, year = {2014}, date = {2014-06-04}, journal = {Institutions and Economies}, volume = {6}, number = {2}, pages = {1-26}, abstract = {With the proliferation of technology used to prate software, this paper answers some key questions in policy decision making. Dynamic panel Generalized Methods of Moments and Two Stage Least Squares are employed. IPRs laws (treaties) are instrumented with government quality dynamics to assess their incidence on software piracy. The following findings are established. (1) Government institutions are crucial in enforcing IPRs laws (treaties) in the fight against software piracy. (2) Main IP laws enacted by the legislature and Multilateral IP laws are most effective in combating piracy. (3) IPRs laws, WIPO Treaties and Bilateral Treaties do not have significant negative incidences on software piracy. Policy implications are discussed.}, keywords = {Africa, Intellectual property rights, Panel data, Software piracy}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } With the proliferation of technology used to prate software, this paper answers some key questions in policy decision making. Dynamic panel Generalized Methods of Moments and Two Stage Least Squares are employed. IPRs laws (treaties) are instrumented with government quality dynamics to assess their incidence on software piracy. The following findings are established. (1) Government institutions are crucial in enforcing IPRs laws (treaties) in the fight against software piracy. (2) Main IP laws enacted by the legislature and Multilateral IP laws are most effective in combating piracy. (3) IPRs laws, WIPO Treaties and Bilateral Treaties do not have significant negative incidences on software piracy. Policy implications are discussed. |
738. | Asongu, Simplice A The Review of Black Political Economy, 41 (2), pp. 145-175, 2014. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Developing countries, Finance, investment, law @article{Asongu_702, author = {Simplice A Asongu}, url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12114-013-9173-7}, doi = {10.1007/s12114-013-9173-7}, year = {2014}, date = {2014-06-04}, journal = {The Review of Black Political Economy}, volume = {41}, number = {2}, pages = {145-175}, abstract = {This paper assesses if legal origin explains domestic, foreign, private and public investments through financial intermediary channels of depth, efficiency, activity and size. The findings show that legal origin matters in the finance-investment nexus, though its ability to explain aggregate investment dynamics only through financial intermediary channels is limited in the cases of private and public investments.}, keywords = {Developing countries, Finance, investment, law}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } This paper assesses if legal origin explains domestic, foreign, private and public investments through financial intermediary channels of depth, efficiency, activity and size. The findings show that legal origin matters in the finance-investment nexus, though its ability to explain aggregate investment dynamics only through financial intermediary channels is limited in the cases of private and public investments. |
739. | Asongu, Simplice A European Journal of Comparative Economics, 11 (1), pp. 93-122, 2014. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Econometric modeling; Big push; Capital flight; Debt relief; Africa @article{Asongu_703, author = {Simplice A Asongu}, url = {http://eaces.liuc.it/18242979201401/182429792014110104.pdf}, year = {2014}, date = {2014-06-01}, journal = {European Journal of Comparative Economics}, volume = {11}, number = {1}, pages = {93-122}, abstract = {With earthshaking and heartbreaking trends in African capital flight provided by a new database, this paper complements existing literature by answering some key policy questions on the feasibility of and timeframe for policy harmonization in the battle against the economic scourge. The goal of the paper is to study beta-convergence of capital flight across a set of 37 African countries in the period 1980-2010 and to discuss the policy implications. Three main findings are established. (1) African countries with low capital flight rates are catching-up their counterparts with higher rates, implying the feasibility of policy harmonization towards fighting capital flight. (2) Petroleum-exporting and conflict-affected countries significantly play out in absolute and conditional convergences respectively. (3) Regardless of fundamental characteristics, a genuine timeframe for harmonizing policies is within a horizon of 6 to 13 years. In other words, full (100%) convergence within the specified horizon is an indication that policies and regulations can be enforced without distinction of nationality or locality.}, keywords = {Econometric modeling; Big push; Capital flight; Debt relief; Africa}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } With earthshaking and heartbreaking trends in African capital flight provided by a new database, this paper complements existing literature by answering some key policy questions on the feasibility of and timeframe for policy harmonization in the battle against the economic scourge. The goal of the paper is to study beta-convergence of capital flight across a set of 37 African countries in the period 1980-2010 and to discuss the policy implications. Three main findings are established. (1) African countries with low capital flight rates are catching-up their counterparts with higher rates, implying the feasibility of policy harmonization towards fighting capital flight. (2) Petroleum-exporting and conflict-affected countries significantly play out in absolute and conditional convergences respectively. (3) Regardless of fundamental characteristics, a genuine timeframe for harmonizing policies is within a horizon of 6 to 13 years. In other words, full (100%) convergence within the specified horizon is an indication that policies and regulations can be enforced without distinction of nationality or locality. |
740. | Asongu, Simplice A European Economic Letters, 3 (1), pp. 1-6, 2014. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Monetary policy; Credit; Empirics; Africa @article{Asongu_704, author = {Simplice A Asongu}, url = {http://eelet.org.uk/EEL3(1)1-6.pdf}, year = {2014}, date = {2014-06-01}, journal = {European Economic Letters}, volume = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {1-6}, abstract = {Economic theory traditionally suggests that monetary policy can influence the business cycle, but not the long-run potential output. Despite well documented theoretical and empirical consensus on money neutrality in the literature, the role of money as an informational variable for monetary policy decision has remained opened to debate with empirical works providing mixed outcomes. This paper addresses two substantial challenges to this debate: the neglect of developing countries in the literature and the use of new financial dynamic fundamentals that broadly reflect monetary policy. The empirics are based on annual data from 34 African countries for the period 1980 to 2010. Using a battery of tests for integration and long-run equilibrium properties, results offer overall support for the traditional economic theory.}, keywords = {Monetary policy; Credit; Empirics; Africa}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Economic theory traditionally suggests that monetary policy can influence the business cycle, but not the long-run potential output. Despite well documented theoretical and empirical consensus on money neutrality in the literature, the role of money as an informational variable for monetary policy decision has remained opened to debate with empirical works providing mixed outcomes. This paper addresses two substantial challenges to this debate: the neglect of developing countries in the literature and the use of new financial dynamic fundamentals that broadly reflect monetary policy. The empirics are based on annual data from 34 African countries for the period 1980 to 2010. Using a battery of tests for integration and long-run equilibrium properties, results offer overall support for the traditional economic theory. |