PUBLICATIONS
The AGDI has published substantially in fulfillment of its mission statement of contributing to knowledge towards African development:
IDEAS
http://ideas.repec.org/d/agdiycm.html
ECONSTOR
https://www.econstor.eu/dspace/escollectionhome/10419/123513
Publication List
2017 |
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| 1. | Asongu, Jacinta Nwachukwu Simplice C A Africagrowth Agenda, 14 (4), pp. 4-7, 2017. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Arab Spring; Political Instability; Timing; Economic Growth @article{Asongu_397, author = {Jacinta Nwachukwu C Simplice A. Asongu}, url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/afj/journ2/v14y2017i4p4-7.html}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-12-13}, journal = {Africagrowth Agenda}, volume = {14}, number = {4}, pages = {4-7}, abstract = {We model core demands for better governance (political, economic and institutional), more employment and less consumer price inflation using a methodological innovation on the complete elimination of cross-country differences in signals susceptible of sparking social revolts. The empirical evidence based on 14 MENA countries show that the Arab Spring was predictable in 2007 to occur between January 2011 and April 2012. While the findings predict the wave of cross-country revolutions with almost mathematical precision, caveats and cautions are discussed for the scholar to understand the expositional dimensions of the empirics.}, keywords = {Arab Spring; Political Instability; Timing; Economic Growth}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } We model core demands for better governance (political, economic and institutional), more employment and less consumer price inflation using a methodological innovation on the complete elimination of cross-country differences in signals susceptible of sparking social revolts. The empirical evidence based on 14 MENA countries show that the Arab Spring was predictable in 2007 to occur between January 2011 and April 2012. While the findings predict the wave of cross-country revolutions with almost mathematical precision, caveats and cautions are discussed for the scholar to understand the expositional dimensions of the empirics. |
| 2. | Asongu, Jacinta Nwachukwu Simplice C A 2017. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Arab Spring; Political Instability; Timing; Economic Growth @unpublished{Asongu_457, author = {Jacinta Nwachukwu C Simplice A. Asongu}, url = {http://www.afridev.org/RePEc/agd/agd-wpaper/The-Arab-Spring-was-predictable-in-2007.Empirics-of-ProofR.pdf}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-06-04}, abstract = {We model core demands for better governance (political, economic and institutional), more employment and less consumer price inflation using a methodological innovation on the complete elimination of cross-country differences in signals susceptible of sparking social revolts. The empirical evidence based on 14 MENA countries show that the Arab Spring was predictable in 2007 to occur between January 2011 and April 2012. While the findings predict the wave of cross-country revolutions with almost mathematical precision, caveats and cautions are discussed for the scholar to understand the expositional dimensions of the empirics.}, keywords = {Arab Spring; Political Instability; Timing; Economic Growth}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {unpublished} } We model core demands for better governance (political, economic and institutional), more employment and less consumer price inflation using a methodological innovation on the complete elimination of cross-country differences in signals susceptible of sparking social revolts. The empirical evidence based on 14 MENA countries show that the Arab Spring was predictable in 2007 to occur between January 2011 and April 2012. While the findings predict the wave of cross-country revolutions with almost mathematical precision, caveats and cautions are discussed for the scholar to understand the expositional dimensions of the empirics. |
2014 |
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| 3. | Asongu, Jacinta Nwachukwu Simplice C A Revolution empirics: predicting the Arab Spring 2014. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Arab Spring; Political Instability; Timing; Economic Growth @workingpaper{Asongu2014bq, title = {Revolution empirics: predicting the Arab Spring}, author = {Jacinta Nwachukwu C Simplice A. Asongu}, editor = {African 2014 Governance and Development Institute WP/32/14}, url = {http://www.afridev.org/RePEc/agd/agd-wpaper/Revolution-empirics-Predicting-the-Arab-Spring.pdf}, year = {2014}, date = {2014-08-01}, abstract = {The paper examines whether the Arab Spring phenomenon was predictable by complete elimination in the dispersion of core demands for better governance, more jobs and stable consumer prices. A methodological innovation of the Generalized Methods of Moments is employed to assess the feasibility and timing of the revolution. The empirical evidence reveals that from a projection date of 2007, the Arab Spring was foreseeable between 2011 and 2012. The paper contributes at the same time to the empirics of predicting revolutions and the scarce literature on modeling the future of socio-economic events. Caveats and cautions are discussed.}, keywords = {Arab Spring; Political Instability; Timing; Economic Growth}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {workingpaper} } The paper examines whether the Arab Spring phenomenon was predictable by complete elimination in the dispersion of core demands for better governance, more jobs and stable consumer prices. A methodological innovation of the Generalized Methods of Moments is employed to assess the feasibility and timing of the revolution. The empirical evidence reveals that from a projection date of 2007, the Arab Spring was foreseeable between 2011 and 2012. The paper contributes at the same time to the empirics of predicting revolutions and the scarce literature on modeling the future of socio-economic events. Caveats and cautions are discussed. |