The AGDI has published substantially in fulfillment of its mission statement of contributing to knowledge towards African development:
IDEAS
http://ideas.repec.org/d/agdiycm.html
ECONSTOR
https://www.econstor.eu/dspace/escollectionhome/10419/123513
Publications List
2019 |
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1. | Osabuohien, Precious Ohalete Romanus Osabohien Evans 2019. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: agriculture, Food Security, governance @unpublished{Asongu_139, author = {Precious Ohalete Romanus Osabohien Evans Osabuohien}, url = {http://www.afridev.org/RePEc/agd/agd-wpaper/Agricultural-Sector-Performance-and-Institutional-Framework-in-Nigeria.pdf}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-11-16}, abstract = {This study examines how the performance of the agricultural sector can be enhanced in the long-run through institutional framework thereby ensuring food security in Nigeria. It employs the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) with data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin, Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), World Development Indicators (WDI), and World Governance Indicators (WDI). Food security is used as the dependent variable proxied by the number of the people undernourished under the stability dimension; agricultural sector performance and institutional framework as the independent variables, while population is a control variable. Two agricultural variables (agriculture production and agriculture credit) are employed with six variables of institutional framework. The findings show that in the long-run, agriculture production and agriculture credit (agriculture variables) will increase food security by reducing the number of people undernourished by 2% and 18%, respectively. In terms of institutional framework; political stability and absence of violence and rule of law increase food security by reducing undernourishment by approximately 69% and 29%, respectively; control of corruption and voice and accountability tends to reduce food security by increasing the number of the people undernourished by 74%, 51% and 63% respectively. Therefore, the study concludes by recommending, among others, that the Nigerian institutional framework should be improved (especially the control of corruption) in addressing the challenges in the implementation of food security programmes and ensuring timely distribution of food resources.}, keywords = {agriculture, Food Security, governance}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {unpublished} } This study examines how the performance of the agricultural sector can be enhanced in the long-run through institutional framework thereby ensuring food security in Nigeria. It employs the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) with data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin, Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), World Development Indicators (WDI), and World Governance Indicators (WDI). Food security is used as the dependent variable proxied by the number of the people undernourished under the stability dimension; agricultural sector performance and institutional framework as the independent variables, while population is a control variable. Two agricultural variables (agriculture production and agriculture credit) are employed with six variables of institutional framework. The findings show that in the long-run, agriculture production and agriculture credit (agriculture variables) will increase food security by reducing the number of people undernourished by 2% and 18%, respectively. In terms of institutional framework; political stability and absence of violence and rule of law increase food security by reducing undernourishment by approximately 69% and 29%, respectively; control of corruption and voice and accountability tends to reduce food security by increasing the number of the people undernourished by 74%, 51% and 63% respectively. Therefore, the study concludes by recommending, among others, that the Nigerian institutional framework should be improved (especially the control of corruption) in addressing the challenges in the implementation of food security programmes and ensuring timely distribution of food resources. |
2. | Okolo-Obasi, Simplice Asongu Joseph Uduji Elda A I N African Development Review, 31 (3), pp. 348-363, 2019. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: agriculture, GESS, Nigeria @article{Asongu_160, author = {Simplice Asongu A Joseph I. Uduji Elda N. Okolo-Obasi}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-8268.12394}, doi = {10.1111/1467-8268.12394}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-10-16}, journal = {African Development Review}, volume = {31}, number = {3}, pages = {348-363}, abstract = {Fertilizer use in Nigeria is estimated at 13 kg/ha, which is far below the 200 kg/ha recommended by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). The objective of this investigation was to identify the determinant factors of farmers’ participation in Nigeria's Growth Enhancement Support Scheme (GESS). In addition, we determined the impact of the GESS on fertilizer use in rural areas. A total of 1,200 rural farmers were sampled across the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Results from the use of a recursive bivariate probit model indicated that GESS significantly impacted on the access and usage of fertilizer among the rural farmers; and that contact with extension agents, ownership of mobile phones, power for charging phone batteries, value output, mobile network coverage, ability to read and write were positive determinants of rural farmers’ participation in the GESS; whereas increased distance to registration and collection centers, and cultural constraints to married women reduced farmers’ tendency to participate in the GESS. The findings suggest that farmers’ participation in the GESS is a critical factor for raising fertilizer use in Nigeria. This implies that food security in sub‐Saharan Africa can be achieved by increasing the participation of rural farmers in the GESS.}, keywords = {agriculture, GESS, Nigeria}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Fertilizer use in Nigeria is estimated at 13 kg/ha, which is far below the 200 kg/ha recommended by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). The objective of this investigation was to identify the determinant factors of farmers’ participation in Nigeria's Growth Enhancement Support Scheme (GESS). In addition, we determined the impact of the GESS on fertilizer use in rural areas. A total of 1,200 rural farmers were sampled across the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Results from the use of a recursive bivariate probit model indicated that GESS significantly impacted on the access and usage of fertilizer among the rural farmers; and that contact with extension agents, ownership of mobile phones, power for charging phone batteries, value output, mobile network coverage, ability to read and write were positive determinants of rural farmers’ participation in the GESS; whereas increased distance to registration and collection centers, and cultural constraints to married women reduced farmers’ tendency to participate in the GESS. The findings suggest that farmers’ participation in the GESS is a critical factor for raising fertilizer use in Nigeria. This implies that food security in sub‐Saharan Africa can be achieved by increasing the participation of rural farmers in the GESS. |
3. | Okolo-Obasi, Simplice Asongu Joseph Uduji Elda A I N 2019. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: agriculture, GESS, Nigeria @unpublished{Asongu_181, author = {Simplice Asongu A Joseph I. Uduji Elda N. Okolo-Obasi}, url = {http://www.afridev.org/RePEc/agd/agd-wpaper/Growth-Enhancement-Support-Scheme-and-Farmers-Fertilizer-Use-in-Rural-Nigeria.pdf}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-09-05}, abstract = {Fertilizer use in Nigeria is estimated at 13 kg/ha, which is far below the 200 kg/ha recommended by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). The objective of this investigation was to identify the determinant factors of farmers’ participation in the Nigeria’s growth enhancement support scheme (GESS). In addition, we determined the impact of the GESS on fertilizer use in rural areas. One thousand, two hundred rural farmers were sampled across the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Results from the use of recursive bivariate probit model indicated that GESS significantly impacted on the access and usage of fertilizer among the rural farmers; and that contact with extension agents, ownership of mobile phones, power for charging phone batteries, value output, mobile network coverage, ability to read and write were positive determinants of rural farmers participation in the GESS; whereas increased distance to registration and collection centers, and cultural constraints to married women reduced farmers’ tendency to participate in the GESS. The findings suggest that farmers’ participation in the GESS is a critical factor for raising fertilizer use in Nigeria. This implies that food security in sub-Saharan Africa can be achieved by increasing the participation of rural farmers in the growth enhancement support scheme.}, keywords = {agriculture, GESS, Nigeria}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {unpublished} } Fertilizer use in Nigeria is estimated at 13 kg/ha, which is far below the 200 kg/ha recommended by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). The objective of this investigation was to identify the determinant factors of farmers’ participation in the Nigeria’s growth enhancement support scheme (GESS). In addition, we determined the impact of the GESS on fertilizer use in rural areas. One thousand, two hundred rural farmers were sampled across the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Results from the use of recursive bivariate probit model indicated that GESS significantly impacted on the access and usage of fertilizer among the rural farmers; and that contact with extension agents, ownership of mobile phones, power for charging phone batteries, value output, mobile network coverage, ability to read and write were positive determinants of rural farmers participation in the GESS; whereas increased distance to registration and collection centers, and cultural constraints to married women reduced farmers’ tendency to participate in the GESS. The findings suggest that farmers’ participation in the GESS is a critical factor for raising fertilizer use in Nigeria. This implies that food security in sub-Saharan Africa can be achieved by increasing the participation of rural farmers in the growth enhancement support scheme. |
4. | Okolo-Obasi, Simplice Asongu Joseph Uduji Elda A I N 2019. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: agriculture, Electronic wallet, GESS, Nigeria @unpublished{Asongu_201, author = {Simplice Asongu A Joseph I. Uduji Elda N. Okolo-Obasi}, url = {http://www.afridev.org/RePEc/agd/agd-wpaper/Electronic-wallet-technology-and-the-enabling-environment-of-smallholder-farmers.pdf}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-07-26}, abstract = {Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to critically examine the impact of growth enhancement support scheme (GESS) on the enabling environment of smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. Its special focus is to investigate the GESS impact on access to rural farm credit and transport cost of smallholder farmers in the agricultural transformation agenda (ATA) in Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach – This paper adopts a survey research technique, aimed at gathering information from a representative sample of the population, as it is essentially cross-sectional that describes and interprets what exist at present. A total of one thousand, two hundred farmers were sampled across the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Findings – Results from the use of a double-hurdle model indicate that the GESS has a significant impact on farmers’ access to credit, but does not significantly affect rural farm transport cost, which subsequently influence the price of food in the country. Practical implication – This implies that if the federal government of Nigeria is to work towards an ideal agricultural transformation agenda, transport networks should be closely aligned with the GESS priorities to provide connectivity to rural areas that provide most of the country’s agricultural output. Originality/value – This research adds to the literature on agricultural and rural development debate in developing countries. It concludes that embracing rural finance and transportation infrastructure should form the foundation of the ATA in Nigeria, which in turn would provide the enabling environment for more widespread rural economy in sub-Saharan Africa.}, keywords = {agriculture, Electronic wallet, GESS, Nigeria}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {unpublished} } Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to critically examine the impact of growth enhancement support scheme (GESS) on the enabling environment of smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. Its special focus is to investigate the GESS impact on access to rural farm credit and transport cost of smallholder farmers in the agricultural transformation agenda (ATA) in Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach – This paper adopts a survey research technique, aimed at gathering information from a representative sample of the population, as it is essentially cross-sectional that describes and interprets what exist at present. A total of one thousand, two hundred farmers were sampled across the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Findings – Results from the use of a double-hurdle model indicate that the GESS has a significant impact on farmers’ access to credit, but does not significantly affect rural farm transport cost, which subsequently influence the price of food in the country. Practical implication – This implies that if the federal government of Nigeria is to work towards an ideal agricultural transformation agenda, transport networks should be closely aligned with the GESS priorities to provide connectivity to rural areas that provide most of the country’s agricultural output. Originality/value – This research adds to the literature on agricultural and rural development debate in developing countries. It concludes that embracing rural finance and transportation infrastructure should form the foundation of the ATA in Nigeria, which in turn would provide the enabling environment for more widespread rural economy in sub-Saharan Africa. |
2018 |
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5. | Uduji, Elda Okolo-Obasi Joseph N I Journal of Crop Improvement, 32 (5), pp. 717-737, 2018. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: agriculture, Crops, E-wallent, Nigeria @article{Asongu_329, author = {Elda Okolo-Obasi N Joseph I. Uduji}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15427528.2018.1496216}, doi = {10.1080/15427528.2018.1496216}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-07-21}, journal = {Journal of Crop Improvement}, volume = {32}, number = {5}, pages = {717-737}, abstract = {The amount of improved seed used in Nigeria is extremely low. Overall, only 5–10% of cultivated land is planted with improved seeds, and about 10% of rural farmers use improved varieties. The objective of this investigation was to identify determinants of adoption of improved seed by farmers not participating in and those participating in the federal government’s e-wallet program in Nigeria. We determined the impact of the e-wallet program on adoption of improved seed in rural areas. A total of 1200 rural farmers were sampled across six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Results from the use of a bivariate probit model indicated that the e-wallet program continued to become increasingly popular among rural farmers; and that farmers’ literacy, ownership of a mobile phone, value output, mobile network coverage, power for charging phone batteries and contact with extension agents were the positive determinants of farmer participation in the e-wallet program. Cultural obstacles to married women, growers’ age, and increased distance to registration and input collection centers reduced farmers’ tendency to participate in the e-wallet program. The results also showed that rural farmers depended on the e-wallet program for increased use and adoption of improved seed in Nigeria, to boost food security in sub-Saharan Africa. The results suggested the need for an improved e-wallet model by lessening constraints mostly associated with rural information and communication infrastructure, and distance to the registration and input collection centers.}, keywords = {agriculture, Crops, E-wallent, Nigeria}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } The amount of improved seed used in Nigeria is extremely low. Overall, only 5–10% of cultivated land is planted with improved seeds, and about 10% of rural farmers use improved varieties. The objective of this investigation was to identify determinants of adoption of improved seed by farmers not participating in and those participating in the federal government’s e-wallet program in Nigeria. We determined the impact of the e-wallet program on adoption of improved seed in rural areas. A total of 1200 rural farmers were sampled across six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Results from the use of a bivariate probit model indicated that the e-wallet program continued to become increasingly popular among rural farmers; and that farmers’ literacy, ownership of a mobile phone, value output, mobile network coverage, power for charging phone batteries and contact with extension agents were the positive determinants of farmer participation in the e-wallet program. Cultural obstacles to married women, growers’ age, and increased distance to registration and input collection centers reduced farmers’ tendency to participate in the e-wallet program. The results also showed that rural farmers depended on the e-wallet program for increased use and adoption of improved seed in Nigeria, to boost food security in sub-Saharan Africa. The results suggested the need for an improved e-wallet model by lessening constraints mostly associated with rural information and communication infrastructure, and distance to the registration and input collection centers. |
6. | Uduji, Elda Okolo-Obasi Joseph N I 2018. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: agriculture, e-wallet programme, Gender @unpublished{Asongu_342, author = {Elda Okolo-Obasi N Joseph I. Uduji}, url = {http://www.afridev.org/RePEc/agd/agd-wpaper/Young-Rural-Women-Participation-in-the-E-Wallet-Programme.pdf}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-05-20}, abstract = {We assess the extent young rural women (YRW) participate in the federal government (FGN)e-wallet programme and the subsequent impact on usage intensity of modern agricultural inputs in Nigeria. Six hundred YRW were sampled across six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Using double-hurdle, results show that YRW rarely participate in the e-wallet programme due to the cultural and traditional context which is anchored in beliefs, norms and practices that breed discrimination and feminized poverty. This implies that Nigeria’s agricultural transformation agenda would only succeed if the FGN is able to draw on all its resources and talents, and if the YRW can be able to participate fully in the e-wallet programme. This will require intensified efforts to eliminate discrimination and promote equalities. To bridge the gender gap, the federal ministry of agriculture and rural development should pay close attention to the extent the participation of unmarried girls and young women, including nursing mothers in the e-wallet programme, may be limited by the cultural and/or domestic and child care duties. The findings suggest that FGN should discourage gender disparities in unequal access to agricultural inputs and pervasive, inequality, especially over ownership of agricultural land that limit women’s contribution to household food baskets.}, keywords = {agriculture, e-wallet programme, Gender}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {unpublished} } We assess the extent young rural women (YRW) participate in the federal government (FGN)e-wallet programme and the subsequent impact on usage intensity of modern agricultural inputs in Nigeria. Six hundred YRW were sampled across six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Using double-hurdle, results show that YRW rarely participate in the e-wallet programme due to the cultural and traditional context which is anchored in beliefs, norms and practices that breed discrimination and feminized poverty. This implies that Nigeria’s agricultural transformation agenda would only succeed if the FGN is able to draw on all its resources and talents, and if the YRW can be able to participate fully in the e-wallet programme. This will require intensified efforts to eliminate discrimination and promote equalities. To bridge the gender gap, the federal ministry of agriculture and rural development should pay close attention to the extent the participation of unmarried girls and young women, including nursing mothers in the e-wallet programme, may be limited by the cultural and/or domestic and child care duties. The findings suggest that FGN should discourage gender disparities in unequal access to agricultural inputs and pervasive, inequality, especially over ownership of agricultural land that limit women’s contribution to household food baskets. |
7. | Uduji, Elda Okolo-Obasi Joseph N I 2018. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: agriculture, Government Support Scheme, Nigeria @unpublished{Asongu_353, author = {Elda Okolo-Obasi N Joseph I. Uduji}, url = {http://www.afridev.org/RePEc/agd/agd-wpaper/Adoption-of-improved-crop-varieties-by-involving-farmers.pdf}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-05-06}, abstract = {The amount of improved seed used in Nigeria is extremely low. Overall, only 5 to 10 percent of cultivated land is planted with improved seeds, and about 10 percent of rural farmers use improved varieties. The objective of this investigation was to identify determinants of adoption of improved seed by farmers not participating in and those participating in the federal government’s e-wallet program in Nigeria. We determined the impact of the e-wallet program on adoption of improved seed in rural areas. One thousand, two hundred (1200) rural farmers were sampled across six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Results from the use of a bivariate probit model indicated that the e-wallet program continued to become increasingly popular among rural farmers; and that farmers’ literacy, ownership of a mobile phone, value output, mobile network coverage, power for charging phone batteries and contact with extension agents were the positive determinants of farmer participation in thee-wallet program. Cultural obstacles to married women, growers’ age, and increased distance to registration and input collection centers reduced farmers’ tendency to participate in the e-wallet program. The results also showed that rural farmers depended on the e-wallet program for increased use and adoption of improved seed in Nigeria, to boost food security in sub-Saharan Africa. The results suggested the need for an improved e-wallet model by lessening constraints mostly associated with rural information and communication infrastructure, and distance to the registration and input collection centers.}, keywords = {agriculture, Government Support Scheme, Nigeria}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {unpublished} } The amount of improved seed used in Nigeria is extremely low. Overall, only 5 to 10 percent of cultivated land is planted with improved seeds, and about 10 percent of rural farmers use improved varieties. The objective of this investigation was to identify determinants of adoption of improved seed by farmers not participating in and those participating in the federal government’s e-wallet program in Nigeria. We determined the impact of the e-wallet program on adoption of improved seed in rural areas. One thousand, two hundred (1200) rural farmers were sampled across six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Results from the use of a bivariate probit model indicated that the e-wallet program continued to become increasingly popular among rural farmers; and that farmers’ literacy, ownership of a mobile phone, value output, mobile network coverage, power for charging phone batteries and contact with extension agents were the positive determinants of farmer participation in thee-wallet program. Cultural obstacles to married women, growers’ age, and increased distance to registration and input collection centers reduced farmers’ tendency to participate in the e-wallet program. The results also showed that rural farmers depended on the e-wallet program for increased use and adoption of improved seed in Nigeria, to boost food security in sub-Saharan Africa. The results suggested the need for an improved e-wallet model by lessening constraints mostly associated with rural information and communication infrastructure, and distance to the registration and input collection centers. |
8. | Uduji, Elda Okolo-Obasi Joseph N I Gender, Technology and Development, 28 (1), pp. 59-81, 2018. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: agriculture, e-wallet programme, Gender @article{Asongu_367, author = {Elda Okolo-Obasi N Joseph I. Uduji}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09718524.2018.1445894?journalCode=rgtd20}, doi = {10.1080/09718524.2018.1445894}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-03-13}, journal = {Gender, Technology and Development}, volume = {28}, number = {1}, pages = {59-81}, abstract = {We assess the extent young rural women (YRW) participate in the federal government (FGN) e-wallet programme and the subsequent impact on usage intensity of modern agricultural inputs in Nigeria. Six hundred YRW were sampled across six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Using double-hurdle, results show that YRW rarely participate in the e-wallet programme due to the cultural and traditional context, anchored in beliefs, norms and practices that breed discrimination, and women’s vulnerability to poverty. This implies that Nigeria’s agricultural transformation agenda would only succeed if the FGN is able to draw on all its resources and talents, and if the YRW are able to participate fully in the e-wallet programme. This will require intensified efforts to eliminate discrimination and promote equalities. To bridge the gender gap, the federal ministry of agriculture and rural development should pay close attention to the extent the participation of unmarried girls and young women, including nursing mothers in the e-wallet programme, may be limited by the cultural and/or domestic and child care duties. The findings suggest that FGN should discourage gender disparities in unequal access to agricultural inputs and pervasive inequality, especially over ownership of agricultural land that limit women’s contribution to household food baskets.}, keywords = {agriculture, e-wallet programme, Gender}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } We assess the extent young rural women (YRW) participate in the federal government (FGN) e-wallet programme and the subsequent impact on usage intensity of modern agricultural inputs in Nigeria. Six hundred YRW were sampled across six geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Using double-hurdle, results show that YRW rarely participate in the e-wallet programme due to the cultural and traditional context, anchored in beliefs, norms and practices that breed discrimination, and women’s vulnerability to poverty. This implies that Nigeria’s agricultural transformation agenda would only succeed if the FGN is able to draw on all its resources and talents, and if the YRW are able to participate fully in the e-wallet programme. This will require intensified efforts to eliminate discrimination and promote equalities. To bridge the gender gap, the federal ministry of agriculture and rural development should pay close attention to the extent the participation of unmarried girls and young women, including nursing mothers in the e-wallet programme, may be limited by the cultural and/or domestic and child care duties. The findings suggest that FGN should discourage gender disparities in unequal access to agricultural inputs and pervasive inequality, especially over ownership of agricultural land that limit women’s contribution to household food baskets. |
2011 |
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9. | Asongu, Brian Jingwa Simplice A A International Journal of Green Economics, 6 (4), pp. 317-330, 2011. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Africa, agriculture, data modelling, deforestation, environment, human development index @article{Asongu_834, author = {Brian Jingwa A Simplice A. Asongu}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/IJGE.2012.051493}, doi = {10.1504/IJGE.2012.051493}, year = {2011}, date = {2011-12-13}, journal = {International Journal of Green Economics}, volume = {6}, number = {4}, pages = {317-330}, abstract = {The rate of deforestation in Africa is of paramount concern not only to the future of Africa, but also to the world. This study uses country-level data to model changes in forest area over an 18 year period (1990–2007) in 35 African countries and investigates the role played by important development indicators of human development. The results reveal that the net loss of forests was 0.19% every year between 1990 and 2007. Human development, which involves life expectancy, education and income, is found to have a positive effect on forest growth and conservation, while logging trees for wood fuel is a significant cause of deforestation. Using generalised linear mixed models and generalised estimating equations, it was possible to calculate expected estimates of forest area for 2010, 2020 and 2030 under the assumption that nothing is done to change observed trends.}, keywords = {Africa, agriculture, data modelling, deforestation, environment, human development index}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } The rate of deforestation in Africa is of paramount concern not only to the future of Africa, but also to the world. This study uses country-level data to model changes in forest area over an 18 year period (1990–2007) in 35 African countries and investigates the role played by important development indicators of human development. The results reveal that the net loss of forests was 0.19% every year between 1990 and 2007. Human development, which involves life expectancy, education and income, is found to have a positive effect on forest growth and conservation, while logging trees for wood fuel is a significant cause of deforestation. Using generalised linear mixed models and generalised estimating equations, it was possible to calculate expected estimates of forest area for 2010, 2020 and 2030 under the assumption that nothing is done to change observed trends. |