AGDI a environ 300 publications actuellement.
2019 |
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1. | Eregha, Perekunah B 2019. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Echange rate, inflation @unpublished{Asongu_168, author = {Perekunah B Eregha}, url = {http://www.afridev.org/RePEc/agd/agd-wpaper/Exchange-Rate-Regimes-and-FDI-WAMZ.pdf}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-10-11}, abstract = {This study examines the effect of exchange rate regimes on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flow for WAMZ. The Arellano Panel Correction for Serial Correlation and Heteroskedaticity option of the Within Estimator for fixed effect panel data model as well as the Dynamic Panel Data Instrumental Variable Approach by Anderson and Hsiao (1981) for the countries selected based on data availability for the period 1980-2016 were used. The fixed exchange rate regime was found to hamper FDI flow in the zone while intermediate policy had a significantly positive effect in facilitating FDI flow during periods of declining foreign reserves and narrowing current account balance in WAMZ. This implies that the transmission of the effect of exchange rate regimes on FDI inflows depends on the positions of the foreign reserves and current account balance in the zone. Consequently, the fixed regime is not a good policy in periods of narrowing current account balance and depleting foreign exchange reserves. The study therefore recommends the need for monetary authorities to be cautious in managing their exchange rates especially in periods of depleting foreign reserves and narrowing current account so as not to deter the much needed FDI inflow.}, keywords = {Echange rate, inflation}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {unpublished} } This study examines the effect of exchange rate regimes on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flow for WAMZ. The Arellano Panel Correction for Serial Correlation and Heteroskedaticity option of the Within Estimator for fixed effect panel data model as well as the Dynamic Panel Data Instrumental Variable Approach by Anderson and Hsiao (1981) for the countries selected based on data availability for the period 1980-2016 were used. The fixed exchange rate regime was found to hamper FDI flow in the zone while intermediate policy had a significantly positive effect in facilitating FDI flow during periods of declining foreign reserves and narrowing current account balance in WAMZ. This implies that the transmission of the effect of exchange rate regimes on FDI inflows depends on the positions of the foreign reserves and current account balance in the zone. Consequently, the fixed regime is not a good policy in periods of narrowing current account balance and depleting foreign exchange reserves. The study therefore recommends the need for monetary authorities to be cautious in managing their exchange rates especially in periods of depleting foreign reserves and narrowing current account so as not to deter the much needed FDI inflow. |
2. | Eregha, Arcade Ndoricimpa Perekunah B 2019. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: inflation, Output, uncertainty @unpublished{Asongu_171, author = {Arcade Ndoricimpa Perekunah B. Eregha}, url = {http://www.afridev.org/RePEc/agd/agd-wpaper/Inflation-Output-Growth-and-their-Uncertainties-in-Nigeria.pdf}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-09-27}, abstract = {The study applies a BEKK GARCH-M model to examine the effect of uncertainty on the levels of inflation and output growth in Nigeria. The results suggest a significant positive effect of inflation uncertainty on the level of inflation, supporting the Cukierman and Meltzer (1986) hypothesis. In addition, uncertainty about inflation is found to be detrimental to output growth, supporting the Friedman’s (1977) hypothesis of a negative effect of inflation uncertainty on output growth. Uncertainty about growth does not have a significant effect on both the levels of inflation and output growth. The evidence in this study suggests that Nigeria should put in place policies minimizing inflation uncertainty to avoid its adverse effects on the economy. In addition, the independence relationship between output growth and its uncertainty in Nigeria suggest that they can be treated separately as suggested by business cycle models.}, keywords = {inflation, Output, uncertainty}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {unpublished} } The study applies a BEKK GARCH-M model to examine the effect of uncertainty on the levels of inflation and output growth in Nigeria. The results suggest a significant positive effect of inflation uncertainty on the level of inflation, supporting the Cukierman and Meltzer (1986) hypothesis. In addition, uncertainty about inflation is found to be detrimental to output growth, supporting the Friedman’s (1977) hypothesis of a negative effect of inflation uncertainty on output growth. Uncertainty about growth does not have a significant effect on both the levels of inflation and output growth. The evidence in this study suggests that Nigeria should put in place policies minimizing inflation uncertainty to avoid its adverse effects on the economy. In addition, the independence relationship between output growth and its uncertainty in Nigeria suggest that they can be treated separately as suggested by business cycle models. |
2016 |
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3. | Asongu, Simplice African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, 7 (2), pp. 164 -204, 2016. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Africa, Banking, inflation, Monetary policy, Output effects @article{Asongu_566, author = {Simplice Asongu}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/AJEMS-11-2012-0079}, doi = {10.1108/AJEMS-11-2012-0079}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-05-14}, journal = {African Journal of Economic and Management Studies}, volume = {7}, number = {2}, pages = {164 -204}, abstract = {Purpose – A major lesson of the European Monetary Union crisis is that serious disequilibria in a monetary union result from arrangements not designed to be robust to a variety of shocks. With the specter of this crisis looming substantially and scarring existing monetary zones, the purpose of this paper is to complement existing literature by analyzing the effects of monetary policy on economic activity (output and prices) in the CEMAC and UEMOA CFA franc zones. Design/methodology/approach – VARs within the frameworks of Vector Error-Correction Models and Granger causality models are used to estimate the long- and short-run effects, respectively. Impulse response functions are further used to assess the tendencies of significant Granger causality findings. A battery of robustness checks are also employed to ensure consistency in the specifications and results. Findings –H1. monetary policy variables affect prices in the long-run but not in the short-run in the CFA zones (broadly untrue). This invalidity is more pronounced in CEMAC (relative to all monetary policy variables) than in UEMOA (with regard to financial dynamics of activity and size). H2. monetary policy variables influence output in the short-term but not in the long-run in the CFA zones. First, the absence of cointegration among real output and the monetary policy variables in both zones confirm the neutrality of money in the long term. With the exception of overall money supply, the significant effect of money on output in the short-run is more relevant in the UEMOA zone, than in the CEMAC zone in which only financial system efficiency and financial activity are significant. Practical implications – First, compared to the CEMAC region, the UEMOA zone’s monetary authority has more policy instruments for offsetting output shocks but fewer instruments for the management of short-run inflation. Second, the CEMAC region is more inclined to non-traditional policy regimes while the UEMOA zone dances more to the tune of traditional discretionary monetary policy arrangements. A wide range of policy implications are discussed. Inter alia: implications for the long-run neutrality of money and business cycles; implications for credit expansions and inflationary tendencies; implications of the findings to the ongoing debate; country-specific implications and measures of fighting surplus liquidity. Originality/value – The paper’s originality is reflected by the use of monetary policy variables, notably money supply, bank and financial credits, which have not been previously used, to investigate their impact on the outputs of economic activities, namely, real GDP output and inflation, in developing country monetary unions.}, keywords = {Africa, Banking, inflation, Monetary policy, Output effects}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Purpose – A major lesson of the European Monetary Union crisis is that serious disequilibria in a monetary union result from arrangements not designed to be robust to a variety of shocks. With the specter of this crisis looming substantially and scarring existing monetary zones, the purpose of this paper is to complement existing literature by analyzing the effects of monetary policy on economic activity (output and prices) in the CEMAC and UEMOA CFA franc zones. Design/methodology/approach – VARs within the frameworks of Vector Error-Correction Models and Granger causality models are used to estimate the long- and short-run effects, respectively. Impulse response functions are further used to assess the tendencies of significant Granger causality findings. A battery of robustness checks are also employed to ensure consistency in the specifications and results. Findings –H1. monetary policy variables affect prices in the long-run but not in the short-run in the CFA zones (broadly untrue). This invalidity is more pronounced in CEMAC (relative to all monetary policy variables) than in UEMOA (with regard to financial dynamics of activity and size). H2. monetary policy variables influence output in the short-term but not in the long-run in the CFA zones. First, the absence of cointegration among real output and the monetary policy variables in both zones confirm the neutrality of money in the long term. With the exception of overall money supply, the significant effect of money on output in the short-run is more relevant in the UEMOA zone, than in the CEMAC zone in which only financial system efficiency and financial activity are significant. Practical implications – First, compared to the CEMAC region, the UEMOA zone’s monetary authority has more policy instruments for offsetting output shocks but fewer instruments for the management of short-run inflation. Second, the CEMAC region is more inclined to non-traditional policy regimes while the UEMOA zone dances more to the tune of traditional discretionary monetary policy arrangements. A wide range of policy implications are discussed. Inter alia: implications for the long-run neutrality of money and business cycles; implications for credit expansions and inflationary tendencies; implications of the findings to the ongoing debate; country-specific implications and measures of fighting surplus liquidity. Originality/value – The paper’s originality is reflected by the use of monetary policy variables, notably money supply, bank and financial credits, which have not been previously used, to investigate their impact on the outputs of economic activities, namely, real GDP output and inflation, in developing country monetary unions. |
2014 |
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4. | Asongu, Simplice A Indian Growth and Development Review, 7 (2), pp. 142 - 180, 2014. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Africa, Banking, inflation, Monetary policy, Output effects, VECM @article{Asongu_679, author = {Simplice A Asongu}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/IGDR-12-2012-0048}, doi = {10.1108/IGDR-12-2012-0048}, year = {2014}, date = {2014-10-15}, journal = {Indian Growth and Development Review}, volume = {7}, number = {2}, pages = {142 - 180}, abstract = {Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of monetary policy on economic activity using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics in inflation-chaotic African countries for the period of 1987-2010.Although in developed economies, changes in monetary policy affect real economic activity in the short-run, but only prices in the long-run, the question of whether these tendencies apply to developing countries remains open to debate. Design/methodology/approach – Vector autoregresion (VARs) within the frameworks of Vector Error Correction Models and simple Granger causality models are used to estimate the long- and short-run effects, respectively. A battery of robustness checks are also used to ensure consistency in the specifications and results. Findings – The tested hypotheses are valid under monetary policy independence and dependence, except few exceptions. H1: Monetary policy variables affect prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. For the first-half (long-run dimension) of the hypothesis, permanent changes in monetary policy variables (depth, efficiency, activity and size) affect permanent variations in prices in the long-term. But in cases of disequilibriums, only financial dynamic fundamentals of depth and size significantly adjust inflation to the cointegration relations. With respect to the second-half (short-run view) of the hypothesis, monetary policy does not overwhelmingly affect prices in the short-term. Hence, but for a thin exception, H1 is valid. H2: Monetary policy variables influence output in the short-term but not in the long-term. With regard to the short-term dimension of the hypothesis, only financial dynamics of depth and size affect real gross domestic product output in the short-run. As concerns the long-run dimension, the neutrality of monetary policy has been confirmed. Hence, the hypothesis is also broadly valid. Practical implications – A wide range of policy implications are discussed. Inter alia: the long-run neutrality of money and business cycles, credit expansions and inflationary tendencies, inflation targeting and monetary policy independence implications. Country-/regional-specific implications, the manner in which the findings reconcile the ongoing debate, measures for fighting surplus liquidity and caveats and future research directions are also discussed. Originality/value – By using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics (that broadly reflect monetary policy), we provide significant contributions to the empirics of money. The conclusion of the analysis is a valuable contribution to the scholarly and policy debate on how money matters as an instrument of economic activity in developing countries}, keywords = {Africa, Banking, inflation, Monetary policy, Output effects, VECM}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of monetary policy on economic activity using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics in inflation-chaotic African countries for the period of 1987-2010.Although in developed economies, changes in monetary policy affect real economic activity in the short-run, but only prices in the long-run, the question of whether these tendencies apply to developing countries remains open to debate. Design/methodology/approach – Vector autoregresion (VARs) within the frameworks of Vector Error Correction Models and simple Granger causality models are used to estimate the long- and short-run effects, respectively. A battery of robustness checks are also used to ensure consistency in the specifications and results. Findings – The tested hypotheses are valid under monetary policy independence and dependence, except few exceptions. H1: Monetary policy variables affect prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. For the first-half (long-run dimension) of the hypothesis, permanent changes in monetary policy variables (depth, efficiency, activity and size) affect permanent variations in prices in the long-term. But in cases of disequilibriums, only financial dynamic fundamentals of depth and size significantly adjust inflation to the cointegration relations. With respect to the second-half (short-run view) of the hypothesis, monetary policy does not overwhelmingly affect prices in the short-term. Hence, but for a thin exception, H1 is valid. H2: Monetary policy variables influence output in the short-term but not in the long-term. With regard to the short-term dimension of the hypothesis, only financial dynamics of depth and size affect real gross domestic product output in the short-run. As concerns the long-run dimension, the neutrality of monetary policy has been confirmed. Hence, the hypothesis is also broadly valid. Practical implications – A wide range of policy implications are discussed. Inter alia: the long-run neutrality of money and business cycles, credit expansions and inflationary tendencies, inflation targeting and monetary policy independence implications. Country-/regional-specific implications, the manner in which the findings reconcile the ongoing debate, measures for fighting surplus liquidity and caveats and future research directions are also discussed. Originality/value – By using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics (that broadly reflect monetary policy), we provide significant contributions to the empirics of money. The conclusion of the analysis is a valuable contribution to the scholarly and policy debate on how money matters as an instrument of economic activity in developing countries |
5. | Asongu, Simplice A Journal of African Business, 15 (1), pp. 64-73, 2014. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Africa, credit, excess money, inflation @article{Asongu_710, author = {Simplice A Asongu}, url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15228916.2014.881231}, doi = {10.1080/15228916.2014.881231}, year = {2014}, date = {2014-03-25}, journal = {Journal of African Business}, volume = {15}, number = {1}, pages = {64-73}, abstract = {This article assesses the adjustment of inflation with financial dynamic fundamentals of money (financial depth), credit (financial activity), and efficiency. Three main findings are established: (a) there are significant long-run relationships between inflation and the fundamentals; (b) the error correction mechanism is stable in all specifications but in case of any disequilibrium, only financial depth is significant in adjusting inflation to the long-run relationship; and (c) in the long-run, short-term adjustments in the ability of banks to transform money into credit do not matter in correcting inflation. This is most probably due to surplus liquidity issues. Policy implications are discussed.}, keywords = {Africa, credit, excess money, inflation}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } This article assesses the adjustment of inflation with financial dynamic fundamentals of money (financial depth), credit (financial activity), and efficiency. Three main findings are established: (a) there are significant long-run relationships between inflation and the fundamentals; (b) the error correction mechanism is stable in all specifications but in case of any disequilibrium, only financial depth is significant in adjusting inflation to the long-run relationship; and (c) in the long-run, short-term adjustments in the ability of banks to transform money into credit do not matter in correcting inflation. This is most probably due to surplus liquidity issues. Policy implications are discussed. |
2013 |
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6. | Asongu, Simplice A Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 5 (1), pp. 39 - 60, 2013. Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Africa, Banks, Development, inflation, Monetary policy, panel, Prices @article{Asongu_767, author = {Simplice A Asongu}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/17576381311317772}, doi = {10.1108/17576381311317772}, year = {2013}, date = {2013-03-13}, journal = {Journal of Financial Economic Policy}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {39 - 60}, abstract = {Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of policy options in financial dynamics (of money, credit, efficiency and size) on consumer prices. Soaring food prices have marked the geopolitical landscape of African countries in the past decade. Design/methodology/approach – The sample is limited to a panel of African countries for which inflation is non‐stationary. VAR models from both error correction and Granger causality perspectives are applied. Analyses of dynamic shocks and responses are also covered and six batteries of robustness checks are applied, to ensure consistency in the results. Findings – First, it is found that there are significant long‐run equilibriums between inflation and each financial dynamic. Second, when there is a disequilibrium, while only financial depth and financial size could be significantly used to exert deflationary pressures, inflation is significant in adjusting all financial dynamics. In other words, financial depth and financial size are more significant instruments in fighting inflation than financial efficiency and activity. Third, the financial intermediary dynamic of size appears to be more instrumental in exerting a deflationary tendency than financial intermediary depth. Fourth, the deflationary tendency from money supply is double that based on liquid liabilities. Practical implications – Monetary policy aimed at fighting inflation only based on bank deposits may not be very effective until other informal and semi‐formal financial sectors are taken into account. It could be inferred that, tight monetary policy targeting the ability of banks to grant credit (in relation to central bank credits) is more effective in tackling consumer price inflation than that, targeting the ability of banks to receive deposits. In the same vein, adjusting the lending rate could be more effective than adjusting the deposit rate. The insignificance of financial allocation efficiency and financial activity as policy tools in the battle against inflation could be explained by the (well documented) surplus liquidity issues experienced by the African banking sector. Social implications – This paper helps in providing monetary policy options in the fight against soaring consumer prices. By keeping inflationary pressures on food prices in check, sustained campaigns involving strikes, demonstrations, marches, rallies and political crises that seriously disrupt economic performance could be mitigated. Originality/value – To the best of the author's knowlege, there is yet no study that assesses monetary policy options that could be relevant in addressing the dramatic surge in the price of consumer commodities.}, keywords = {Africa, Banks, Development, inflation, Monetary policy, panel, Prices}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of policy options in financial dynamics (of money, credit, efficiency and size) on consumer prices. Soaring food prices have marked the geopolitical landscape of African countries in the past decade. Design/methodology/approach – The sample is limited to a panel of African countries for which inflation is non‐stationary. VAR models from both error correction and Granger causality perspectives are applied. Analyses of dynamic shocks and responses are also covered and six batteries of robustness checks are applied, to ensure consistency in the results. Findings – First, it is found that there are significant long‐run equilibriums between inflation and each financial dynamic. Second, when there is a disequilibrium, while only financial depth and financial size could be significantly used to exert deflationary pressures, inflation is significant in adjusting all financial dynamics. In other words, financial depth and financial size are more significant instruments in fighting inflation than financial efficiency and activity. Third, the financial intermediary dynamic of size appears to be more instrumental in exerting a deflationary tendency than financial intermediary depth. Fourth, the deflationary tendency from money supply is double that based on liquid liabilities. Practical implications – Monetary policy aimed at fighting inflation only based on bank deposits may not be very effective until other informal and semi‐formal financial sectors are taken into account. It could be inferred that, tight monetary policy targeting the ability of banks to grant credit (in relation to central bank credits) is more effective in tackling consumer price inflation than that, targeting the ability of banks to receive deposits. In the same vein, adjusting the lending rate could be more effective than adjusting the deposit rate. The insignificance of financial allocation efficiency and financial activity as policy tools in the battle against inflation could be explained by the (well documented) surplus liquidity issues experienced by the African banking sector. Social implications – This paper helps in providing monetary policy options in the fight against soaring consumer prices. By keeping inflationary pressures on food prices in check, sustained campaigns involving strikes, demonstrations, marches, rallies and political crises that seriously disrupt economic performance could be mitigated. Originality/value – To the best of the author's knowlege, there is yet no study that assesses monetary policy options that could be relevant in addressing the dramatic surge in the price of consumer commodities. |